Japan’s 26-Year-Old Ruling Coalition Collapses

Critical Questions by Kristi Govella

Published October 10, 2025

On October 10, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s long-time coalition partner, Komeito, announced that it would withdraw from their formal partnership. The decision comes as a serious setback to newly elected LDP party leader Sanae Takaichi, who needs parliamentary approval to become Japan's next prime minister. The schism arose due to differences between the LDP and Komeito regarding political funding scandals and ideological issues. The collapse of the formal LDP-Komeito coalition further exacerbates recent instability in Japanese domestic politics, creating potential opportunities for opposition parties to increase their influence if they can overcome their own significant differences. The fluidity of this domestic political situation creates challenges for the Japanese government as it seeks to address the concerns of its citizens while also navigating an increasingly uncertain international environment.

Q1: Why did Komeito withdraw from the coalition with the LDP?

A1: The LDP and Komeito have been formal coalition partners since 1999, and coordination with Komeito has been an important factor in the LDP's steady electoral success since that time. Komeito is a moderate conservative party whose electoral support is closely tied to its relationship with the religious organization Soka Gakkai, which has about 8.3 million member households in Japan. This relationship informs the pacifist and anti-corruption elements of the centrist party's platform. Despite differences in positions, the LDP and Komeito managed to maintain their formal coalition for 26 years.

Strains began to emerge between the coalition partners immediately following Takaichi's selection as LDP president on October 4. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito expressed concerns about Takaichi's conservative views, including her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and potential policies toward foreign nationals, and emphasized the need for the LDP to address the political funding scandals that have plagued it for the past several years. Although the two parties reportedly came to an agreement on historical and immigration issues, political donations remained a sticking point. On October 7, Takaichi decided to give a senior party post to Koichi Hagiuda, a politician temporarily suspended from party posts for his involvement in a funding scandal, and the catalyst for the coalition's breakdown was reportedly the LDP's lukewarm response to a Komeito proposal to impose stricter regulations on political donations. Although the LDP leadership said they would consider the proposal, Komeito judged this response insufficient and decided to exit the coalition. With Komeito also facing declines in its own support base in recent elections, its leadership also cited the need to seek alignment with the party's core principles and the desire to become the "axis of a moderate reformist movement."

Q2: What happens next?

A2: The LDP was already in a weak political position after two electoral defeats in October 2024 and July 2025, and the loss of its longtime coalition partner has worsened the situation further. Since her selection as LDP president, Takaichi has expressed openness to engaging in coalition talks with other opposition parties. Still, there are challenges to each potential partnership, and the opposition parties are generally wary of binding themselves to a struggling LDP. The first major test will be whether the LDP can secure sufficient support to gain parliamentary approval for Takaichi to become prime minister. Her approval has now become less certain, since Komeito is unlikely to support her nomination, meaning the LDP will have to reach out to other opposition parties instead.

This state of affairs could allow Japan's political opposition to appoint an alternative candidate for prime minister, and various parties have already been engaged in discussions, with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)-the largest opposition party-offering to consider candidates other than its own leader, former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda. However, the ideological diversity of the opposition parties-which range from progressive to ultraconservative-means they face significant challenges in agreeing among themselves. Although there is historical precedent for Japanese opposition parties banding together to form a non-LDP coalition, when this happened in 1993, the fragile coalition lasted only one year before the LDP returned to power in 1994. When the LDP lost power between 2009 and 2012, it faced a single influential opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, which subsequently disintegrated after the LDP returned to power.

Q3: What are the broader implications for Japanese politics and foreign policy?

A3: The collapse of the LDP-Komeito coalition is the latest development in an increasingly unstable Japanese domestic political environment. In addition to the question of who will become Japan's next prime minister, it is unclear how the new Japanese government will look or function moving forward. For example, as the largest political party, the LDP could continue in minority government, brokering deals on an issue-by-issue basis on even more difficult negotiating terms than before. Komeito has left open the possibility of cooperating with the LDP on such a basis. Alternatively, new coalitions could emerge between the LDP and opposition parties or among the opposition parties themselves, but these scenarios would require intensive discussions among party leaders to cobble together new alignments.

This domestic political uncertainty comes at a busy and uncertain time for Japanese foreign policy. Faced with intensifying economic and security challenges, the Japanese government has been attempting to sustain strong ties with the United States amid ongoing trade negotiations and demands for increased defense burden sharing, while also strengthening strategic partnerships with like-minded countries. Later this month, Japan's new leader is expected to attend major summits associated with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea, as well as receive a visit from U.S. President Donald Trump. As the domestic and international environments become increasingly fluid, Japan's next prime minister must simultaneously navigate turmoil at home and volatility abroad.

Kristi Govella is senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., and associate professor of Japanese politics and international relations at the University of Oxford.

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