Should You Buy ADM Stock At This Price

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Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) trade at 13.7 times earnings, against 22.3 for the median S&P 500 company. The stock fell 13.4% in the month to November 5. Either a sound business is on sale, or buyers are paying a fair price for a profit recovery that may not last. A buyer at this price is betting that ADM's crushing and ethanol profit holds up and shows up as cash. So what does that buyer get today?

ADM's Profit Has More Than Doubled In A Year

A buyer gets a company earning far more than it did a year ago. Over the four quarters to September 2026, ADM recorded net income of $2.48 billion, against $1.19 billion a year earlier. Management raised its 2026 outlook for the third time on its November 3 call.

Management credited the year-over-year gain in fiscal Q3 2026 to a constructive biofuels environment, ADM's North American presence and good execution. Within Ag Services and Oilseeds, the company's largest business, crushing earned $311 million of operating profit in fiscal Q3 2026, about $300 million more than a year earlier. Strong ethanol margins, including policy incentives, also lifted Carbohydrate Solutions.

ADM's Cash And Per-Share Earnings Trail Earlier Years

That profit has not shown up as cash yet. Over the four quarters to September 2026, ADM generated $1.48 billion in cash from operations, coming in at less than a quarter of the $6.09 billion from a year earlier. Management points instead to cash from operations before working capital changes, which was about $3 billion for the first nine months of 2026. Even so, ADM paid $1.01 billion in dividends over the latest four quarters, against $0.35 billion of free cash flow.

ADM also still earns less per share than in 2022: it earned $5.13 over the four quarters to September 2026, against $7.25 over the four quarters to September 2022. Revenue grew 1.0% over the latest twelve months. Across the three twelve-month periods to September 2026, including that one, revenue fell 4.5% on average. Revenue at Ag Services and Oilseeds fell 7.2% in fiscal 2025, after a 9.7% fall in fiscal 2024.

What Is ADM Doing To Lift Profit And Cash?

ADM is cutting costs and capital spending. Management said its cost savings program remains on track with a target of $500 million to $750 million. The company now expects 2026 capital spending of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, down from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion.

Management now guides to adjusted earnings of $5.50 to $5.80 a share for 2026, up from $5.15 to $5.60 before the fiscal Q3 2026 report. Management expects the biofuels market to keep helping: it said crush margins may have peaked in the third quarter, but it still sees very strong margins in the fourth quarter and into 2027. If those margins fade before cash recovers, a buyer would hold a smaller profit as well as weak cash.

What A Buyer At Today's Price Is Betting On

ADM's profit from biofuels has held up so far, but its cash has not followed. So buying at this price is less a bet that the market has mispriced a sound business than a bet that ADM turns more of its profit into cash. ADM's cash from operations for fiscal Q4 2026 will be the number to watch in the report expected in February 2027.

That's a bet on one company. For your whole portfolio, balance beats a bet.

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